Critical Test: Can Bitcoin Hold $100K or Will 'Legacy Profit-Takers' Crash the Floor?
Analytical Briefing: Asia Morning Update & Market Movements (November 4, 2025)
The cryptocurrency market is currently navigating a **complex and critical phase**, where **liquidity rotation** is battling heavy **profit-taking from long-term holders (Legacy Sellers)**, putting **Bitcoin's (BTC)** resilience to the ultimate test. While the market insists on **Bitcoin holding $100K**, all eyes are on the two major factors determining the next trend: Is the weakness driven by Macro factors or internal Micro market shifts?
What You Need to Know Right Now:
- BTC Stability: Despite a recent slide erasing nearly 13% of its value over the last month, **BTC remains stable above the crucial $100,000 threshold**, currently trading around $106,500.
- Historic Profit-Taking: Analysts attribute the selling pressure to **"OGs" and long-term Bitcoin holders** securing profits after a prolonged rally. Approximately **405,000 BTC** from long-held supply has moved to exchanges over the past month.
- Liquidity Rotation (Macro): Others argue the primary cause is a significant shift in capital, with liquidity flowing back into **traditional equity markets**, particularly AI and FinTech sectors, diverting funds from crypto.
- ETH and Altcoin Performance: **Ethereum (ETH)** continues its downtrend, trading near $3,620, marking a nearly 20% decline over the month and reflecting weak appetite for altcoins.
⚔️ The Ongoing Debate: Macro vs. Micro Market Drivers
The core discussion among trading desks revolves around the source of the market weakness:
1. The Macro View: Liquidity Flowing to Equities
Singapore-based market maker **Enflux** suggests that the **"real story today was rotation,"** with capital aggressively moving into traditional assets. Wall Street is reportedly "gearing up for another leg higher," forcing crypto to compete with a global trend of reallocating risk capital.
2. The Micro View: Selling by 'The OGs'
QCP Capital counters this, asserting that recent drawdowns are largely **unrelated to Macro factors**. Instead, the pressure is attributed directly to **Legacy Holders** taking profits, evidenced by large BTC transfers to exchanges like Kraken.
Key Consensus: Despite the diverging explanations, both sides agree that the **market consolidation phase is not yet over**. BTC's ability to **absorb this massive, historic supply** and maintain stability above $100K suggests strong structural resilience, even while struggling to compete with the equity narrative.
✨ Other Key Market Developments
The broader crypto and financial landscape saw several significant announcements:
- Ripple's Expansion: Ripple acquired crypto wallet firm **Palisade** to bolster its institutional payments business, signaling continued **M&A activity** in the sector.
- Weak SOL Performance Despite ETF Success: Solana's SOL tumbled nearly 20% in a week, **despite the highly successful launch of US Spot Solana ETFs**. The debut saw robust investor demand, with Bitwise’s Solana ETF attracting $199 million in fresh funds.
As the market digests these competing forces, the **$100,000 level for Bitcoin** remains the definitive line in the sand. Market participants are closely watching whether renewed institutional interest can overpower the weight of long-term profit-taking.
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